How Do They Rate For 2008? - Capitol Hill Coffee House

While it may be too early to do any real political prognosticating about 2008, a new Marist College survey at least gives us a chance to wet our fingers, stick them in the air and see which way the political winds are blowing.

The Republicans have no clear-cut leader at the present time, although by a slim 24 to 20 percent margin, Rudy Guliani edged out John McCain for first place in the poll. Third place went to Florida governor Jeb Bush, who was favored by 10 percent. On the Democrat side, things are a little different, with Hillary Clinton's 40 percent trouncing last year's failed candidate, John Kerry, who could only muster 18 percent. Interestingly, the survey found that when Guliani was pitted against Mrs. Clinton, he led with a slim one-point edge, 47 to 46 percent.

What does all this mean? The most obvious thing to me is that the GOP may be headed for deep trouble in 2008. The reason is that neither of the top two Republicans in this survey will have the ability to draw enthusiastic support from the conservative base of the Republican Party. Why not? Well, although Rudy still has high popularity among the public at large with the strong leadership he demonstrated after the 9/11 attacks, the public also has a short attention span. If there continue to be no further attacks on American soil by terrorists, many folks will be thinking more in terms of pocketbook issues. Among conservatives, the more they learn about Rudy Guliani's rather liberal positions on social issues, (he supports gay rights, abortion, affirmative action and gun control), the less enthusiastic they will become about supporting him for the highest office in the land.

John McCain probably holds even less appeal for conservatives than Guliani, given his propensity to take positions counter to most of those within his own party, and especially given his often antagonistic demeanor when doing so. Some liberals claim he's just Zell Miller in reverse, but that's not a valid comparison for two reasons – Zell really didn't change insomuch as his party did, secondly, and even more important, Zell knew he was retiring and had no political ambitions at stake - unlike McCain, who clearly still has big ambitions, with the White House as his goal. The contrary Arizona senator was even courted by John Kerry to be Kerry's running mate to run in opposition to President Bush last year. While it's true that McCain turned the offer down and ultimately campaigned for Mr. Bush, the fact that he was even approached by Kerry speaks volumes. For conservatives, of the many transgressions committed by McCain, the least forgivable has to have been the Campaign Finance Reform bill. McCain-Feingold will go down as one of the worst, and most unconstitutional pieces of legislation to ever emerge from Capitol Hill.

Jeb Bush? I can't even comprehend America voting in still another Bush – conjures up images of a dynasty (monarchy?), perhaps. Plus there are many conservatives who believe (rightly or wrongly) that Jeb should have done more to prevent the recent legal starvation and dehydration of the late Terri Schaivo.

The Democrats face a different sort of dilemma – they have someone who can excite their base (Hillary), but the true base has gone so far leftward that their enthusiasm is actually a negative, at least in terms of wooing other, more centrist voters. Hillary may not actually be, as the media is fond of proclaiming, the “smartest woman in the world”, but she's certainly smart enough to realize that she'll have to position herself much closer to the center than she actually is, in order to run successfully. We're seeing that already, with her recent statements about the party needing to be more inclusive where pro-lifers are concerned. Not to mention she's trying to capitalize on the red-hot illegal immigrant issue, attempting to scoop Bush and some of the others in the GOP who have been quite slack on the matter. It is indeed, an issue that could ultimately be the undoing of the Republican majority.

John Kerry? No chance. The same problem that shot down his candidacy in 2004, of being way too liberal to be in touch with the mainstream, would doom his chances in 2008. Not to mention that his actions of betraying his fellow soldiers on returning from Viet Nam, would once again bring out angry veterans en masse to vote against him. Beyond that, the Clintons still pretty much retain control of the Democrat Party, so if Hillary decides she wants the nomination, the Clinton machinery won't allow someone as inconsequential as Senator Flip-Flop to stand in the way.

So, where do we stand? One thing is certain - there is no true conservative standard bearer within the GOP that is on the presidential radar at present. Without someone leading the way who can excite the base, the Republicans could easily find conservatives either staying home in large numbers or voting for third party candidates in 2008. The one thing that could energize conservatives, other than someone else currently unannounced entering the picture, would be if Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic nomination. True, she remains a very polarizing figure with a lot of baggage. However, with some very slick positioning and packaging, she could perhaps overcome that (read, fool voters). Hey, why not, it worked for Bill. On the other hand, conservatives could very easily become energized enough to go out and vote – not for someone, per se, but to vote against someone.

Sad to say, but it seems that in recent times that is all that elections have become.

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